Some speculation on the recent games in the Pacific
一、 眾所周知,一九七二年的上海通報,美國政府已經宣佈管臺灣是中國的事。
二、 亦眾所周知,美軍的長期策劃中心,十年前就認定左營必然將成為中國人民海軍的軍港。
三、 美國欠北京的債是天文數字;只要北京要美國付債務的利息,美國經濟立即四腳朝天。
四、 日本經濟靠北京。
五、 兩週前,美國宣佈,北京在太平洋擴展勢力的事,美國只會配合,不會干涉。
六、 不到兩週後,釣魚台事情又開始鬧大;這不可能是巧合。
七、 日本與北京爭釣魚台,臺灣無法插手:很簡單,實力不足。
八、 李登輝已說釣魚台是日本領土,這很可能是北京安排的伏筆,作用扗于牽制臺灣極右派的臺獨。
九、 日本很可能也是配合北京、演戲給大家看,先搖旗吶喊,再來談判,最後釣魚台一定歸中國。
十、 北韓好不容易開始改革,但年輕領袖未十分穩,也要看北京臉色。尤其最近整頓軍方,金正恩必須安頓軍心。
十一、 韓國人最討厭日本。要讓南、北韓統一,最快的方法是一起對抗日本。
十二、 倘若日本對釣魚台投入太多軍力,韓國成為日本後顧之憂。
十三、 釣魚台對日本不重要,但北京佔釣魚台,就是敞開了臺灣的門。
十四、 或許整件事,北京志扗臺灣,不扗釣魚台。
十五、 臺灣志扗內鬥,不管外面的事。
It is no secret that in 1972, the US government announced it would stand off from Taiwan, and that a the beginning of the 21st century, American military long term strategists were taking it for granted that Taiwan ports would be serving the Chinese People's Navy.
The US has not had a lot of choice in this matter, as the US debt to the PRC is staggering; if they were to call in the interest on the debt, the US economy would immediately turn belly up.
Japan's largest trading partner is the PRC.
Two weeks ago, the US announced that it would work closely with Beijing as they expanded their influence in the Pacific. In less than two weeks, friction arose over the disputed Diaoyutai Islands between Taiwan and Okinawa. This cannot be a coincidence.
Taiwan has laid claim to the islands, but does not have any power to back up the claims. Former President Lee Tenghui's astounding declaration that the islands are actually Japanese territory may have been set up by Beijing, to counter Taiwan's extreme right, the Taiwan Independence people.
I suspect that Japan is also playing a role here, yelling and shaking their scabbards as a prelude to negotiations that confirm the islands as Chinese territory.
North Korea has finally undertaken reforms, but Kim Jong-Un is still not firmly in control, especially since he purged the military. He has to take PRC support into consideration.
Both Koreas, North and South, hate Japan, so the quickest way to unify Korea would be to have one or both face off Japan. If Japan got too serious about military operations in Diaoyutai, they would have to worry about Korea on their other front.
Actually, Diaoyutai is not very important to Japan, not nearly as important as the economic might of PRC. But if Beijing can move freely around the islands, the door to Taiwan is wide open.
So maybe the whole affair is directed at Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is too busy in-fighting to pay attention to what's going on in the world outside.